India Ratifies Controversial Nuclear Treaty With U.S.

By M.M. Ali


	Part of a vehicle hangs on a tree outside the trauma ward at the civil hospital in Ahmedabad on July 27, the day after a wave of bombings killed at least 45 people and left 100 injured in India’s religiously tense western city (AFP photo/ Sam Panthaky).

INDIAN PRIME Minister Manmohan Singh’s bold gamble to proceed with a July 22 confidence vote in parliament to ratify the nuclear deal he signed last year with President George W. Bush has paid off. However, it was achieved at a high political and financial cost. According to press reports in India, although the government’s left-wing coalition members, led by the Communist Party of India, resigned from the Congress Party-led coalition, Singh survived by managing to secure the support of the Samajwadi Party, led by Mulaim Singh, and by keeping some of the right-wing BJP members from voting by bribing them heavily.

Every political group in India realizes the benefits of the U.S.-offered nuclear deal in developing energy resources for the country’s rapidly expanding economy. However, the Communists see the deal as strengthening their nation of India against their ideological ally China, and opposed the deal.

The Samajwadi Party viewed Singh’s overture as an opportunity to gain momentary political mileage by rescuing Congress. When the votes were counted in the 540-seat lower house, Congress won by a margin of just 17 votes. Prime Minister Singh now is faced with meeting the demands of the groups that helped him win the vote. With Indian elections due next May, a great deal of horse trading can be expected between now and the elections.

As reported by The New York Times, explosions that rocked the city of Ahmedabad in the state of Gujarat on July 26 killed “at least 45 people.” The previous day, a series of blasts in the high-tech city of Bangalore killed one person and wounded many. And this past May, several bomb explosions in Jaipur, Rajasthan, caused much damage.

The pattern of bombings indicates that the cities being targeted are in states where the BJP is in power. The central government has intervened, putting many states on alert. In 2002 alone, it will be recalled, more than 1,000 Indian Muslims were killed in Hindu-Muslim riots. With the election date nearing, however, such disturbances may increase. Many observers see them as an effort to galvanize India’s right-wing Hindu elements to back the BJP.

Pakistan Politics Still in Disarray

More than 100 days after the country’s Feb. 18 elections, politics in Pakistan seem to be going nowhere. President Pervez Musharraf, elected to another five-year term by a lame-duck parliament and state legislatures, continues to meet with his successor as commander-in-chief, Gen. Pervez Kayani, as well as with Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, and issuing political statements from time to time without deigning to acknowledge the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Calling the shots from behind the scenes is PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto’s widower, who spends most of his time out of the country. At home there are signs of an internal PPP breakup, with senior party leader Amin Faheem preparing to assume PPP leadership, against Zardari’s wishes.

Former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Muslim League (N) party, has walked out of the coalition with PPP and his ministers have resigned from the government. Sharif continues to oppose Musharraf and to call for reinstatement of the federal judges dismissed by Musharraf last Nov. 3. Led by Etezaz Ahsan, the lawyers’ community has threatened to hold street demonstrations beginning Aug. 17 if the issue of the judges remains unresolved. Meanwhile, with little power, Prime Minister Gilani minds the administration. With the exception of the national budget, no major legislation had been introduced in the National Assembly by the end of July—despite the fact that the economy continues to deteriorate with every passing week.

The law-and-order situation, especially on the borders between Pakistan and Afghanistan, worsens daily. Islamabad’s peace agreements with the tribal leaders on the Pakistan side of the border are viewed by the Afghans, the NATO forces and the U.S. as being behind increased attacks on Afghanistan. Such peace deals, analysts argue, have provided an opportunity for Islamic militants to gain ground inside Pakistan and increase their sphere of influence within the country—a matter of great concern to Islamabad.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.