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Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, September-October 2008, pages 61-62 Waging Peace Two Views: Iranian Domestic Trends
A JUNE 19 panel on “The Impact of Electoral Trends on Iran’s Security Policies” was co-sponsored by the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center and the Institute for National Strategic Studies of the National Defense University. Ali Ansari, author, professor and director at the Institute for Iranian Studies of the University of St. Andrews, and Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow on foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy, discussed the implications of domestic trends in Iran. The conversation was moderated by Judith S. Yaphe, a senior research fellow and Middle East Project director at the Institute for National Strategic Studies. In the last five years, Ansari pointed out, Iranians have witnessed drastic changes in the post-Reformist era, with a “democratizing trend reversing...and a return of charismatic authority” similar to ancient Iranian dynasties with imperialistic attitudes. Ansari described current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as “among the most explicit in his exploitation of nationalist motives and ideology...which reflects very much the direction that society is going.” Along with a return to charismatic political leadership in Iran, Ansari noted, there is a “de-politicization of the public.” This is ironic, he pointed out, because Ahmadinejad painted himself as the “populist” candidate—which would necessitate public participation in politics; but participation must be kept low in order to guarantee conservative wins in Iran. The fact that Iranian conservatives, or principalists, have not won a fair election since 2004, and that, according to Ansari, “the 2008 Majlis elections were among the most fraudulent...by Iranian standards,” has caused them to “pander to nationalism” as a unifying social trend. Meanwhile, Ansari elaborated, “soft-power is something that Iran excels at,” and the U.S.-led War on Terror has allowed the country to further cultivate its influence abroad. Thus, Ansari emphasized, domestic nationalism and Iran’s foreign policy situation are linked. For example, Iran’s increasingly strategic position in the international community parallels its heightening domestic nationalistic determination for nuclear enrichment. The growing opinion of the country and its leaders that “the U.S. is a declining power” opens the doors for foreign involvement and strengthening Iranian nationalism. We have reached a point, Ansari concluded, where “you cannot ignore Iran,” and the country will remain important for decades to come. In Maloney’s opinion, the upcoming 2009 presidential elections “may be arguably the most important presidential ballot of Iran’s history...because it will fall in the aftermath of some significant changes [in the U.S.], irrespective of whether we see a Democratic or Republican in office in Washington...we will see some considerable shift in the way that the U.S. thinks and talks about Iran.” Despite Washington’s pervasive idea that the Islamic Republic will “fade into history,” Maloney stated, it is time to recognize that “the Islamic Republic as a set of institutions is going to survive.” With this in mind, the scholar portrayed the Majlis as “one of the few vehicles of political change within Iran...[that] has some authority over key areas of state policy...[and is] a leading indicator of political trends” that influence presidential elections. Maloney emphasized that “the selection of [Ali] Larijani as the new speaker of the parliament is a significant setback to Mr. Ahmadinejad.” Despite the fact that “conservatives have gained almost unprecedented dominance in Iranian politics,” Maloney opined, “there has been considerable splintering” among political groups and flux within the country. According to Maloney, the “reform movement has taken quite a beating” and there is “Khatami-fatigue” among Iranians which makes Khatami’s participation in the next presidential election dubious. Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani also is “at a crossroads of his career...[and] is no longer a figure who can, behind the scenes, control or dominate” the direction of Iranian politics. Maloney described Rafsanjani as “the one person...who has at least been trying to poke a door open” throughout the last few decades of U.S.-Iranian relations. “Iran now has very new dilemmas,” Maloney concluded, and is embroiled in a new context wholly different from its prior self-sustained isolation. Within this new context, “Ahmadinejad will be looking for ways to use any shifts in U.S. policy to strengthen his own position,” and she ultimately believes that he is “very well-positioned to take another four-year term.” —Nina Hamedani |
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