Articles
Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, July 2009, pages 34-35
Islam and the Near East in the Far East
Yudhoyono Well Placed for Indonesia’s Presidential Elections
By John Gee
 |
|
|
|
PRESIDENT SUSILO Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party (PD) was the big winner in Indonesia’s April 9 general election, winning 20.85 percent of the national vote. Given the fragmented state of Indonesian politics, this gave it a comfortable edge over its leading rivals.
Of an electorate of 171 million, 120 million Indonesians voted. Thirty-eight parties contested the election, but only nine will be represented in the new parliament, thanks to a requirement of receiving at least 2.5 percent of the vote. Parties that fail to attain this standard not only are excluded from the new parliament, but are ineligible to run in future elections. While new parties may be established, this requirement could reduce the number of candidates running in future contests from the 11,219 who ran this time.
Golkar, long used to being the dominant party in Indonesian politics, came in second with 14.45 percent of the vote, just ahead of the other major contender, former President Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P), with 14.03 percent.
Religious-based parties—the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), National Mandate Party (PAN), United Development Party (PPP) and National Awakening Party (PKB)—took the next four positions and around a quarter of the total votes (24.15 percent, compared to the same parties’ 33.51 percent in 2004): The PKS barely improved on its 2004 performance, but emerged as the largest of the religious-based parties because of the decline in the votes for the others.
Two new parties, the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and People’s Conscience Party (Hanura), both led by ex-military figures (see May/June Washington Report, p. 44), complete the eligible nine parties, with 4.46 and 3.77 percent of the vote respectively.
The outcome shook up plans for the presidential election, due in July, with the possibility of a run-off in September if that election is not conclusive. To put forward a presidential candidate, a party must either win or bring together a coalition representing either 20 percent of parliamentary seats or 25 percent of the votes cast in the parliamentary election. Yudhoyono can fulfill the condition easily, as his party has secured 148 seats (versus 97 in 2004)—more than 26 percent of the total—and can expect the support of most of the religious parties. To avoid appearing over-dependent on the latter, however, he was expected to reach out to potential supporters in the two major rival parties. Yudhoyono has chosen Boediona, governor of the central bank and a reformist, as his vice-presidential running mate.
Golkar had expected a better result. Its chairman, Jusuf Kalla, served as Yudhoyono’s vice president, but the relationship was reported to have become increasingly strained. Golkar’s leadership had talked about nominating Kalla as its presidential candidate, but with its vote down by a third compared to 2004 and with a smaller parliamentary presence (108 seats), it was not confident about the challenge. Nevertheless, on May 1 Kalla announced his decision to run for president, with former armed forces commander-in-chief Wiranto, leader of Hanura, as his running mate.
Likewise, Megawati Sukarnoputri’s chances were dimmed by PDI-P’s loss of 4 percent of the vote and 16 parliamentary seats, leaving it with 93 seats. Nevertheless, she announced her candidacy in May.
Almost at the same time as Kalla was declaring his candidacy, it was announced that Golkar, PDI-P, Gerindra and Hanura would form a parliamentary coalition, but decide later on what to do about the presidential contest. A secular bloc this broad might leave Yudhoyono dependent on the parliamentary support of the Muslim parties, but he is likely to try to preserve his room to maneuver by cultivating alliances within the loose coalition.
Yudhoyono is generally popular compared to other politicians and appears to have a commanding advantage over any potential rival. He could win outright in July without a run-off being necessary, but the deteriorating economic situation will then tax his capabilities to the utmost.
Well AWARE
For more than a quarter of a century, the Association of Women for Action and Research (AWARE) has worked to advance the status of women in Singapore. Among a wide range of activities undertaken in recent years was a sex education course for school students, in the course of which pre-marital sex was mentioned in a non-judgmental fashion, how to say “no” to sex was discussed alongside contraception, and one and a half minutes (out of a half-hour talk) was given over to discussion of same-sex relations in a factual, neutral way. This was the main factor behind a bid by fundamentalist Christians to take control of AWARE.
Dr. Thio Su Mien, a senior lawyer, encouraged people who sympathized with her views to join AWARE in the early months of the year and to attend the association’s annual general meeting—normally an uneventful affair that most members don’t bother to attend. On March 28, however, AWARE veterans were caught off guard, as the fundamentalists showed up in strength and took most of the seats on the board.
One by one, remaining AWARE loyalists resigned. The new leadership (six of whom attended the same church, but refused to say whether they had known each other before) sacked a worker at the headquarters “for insubordination,” dismissed sub-committee heads, changed the locks on the headquarters and installed security cameras—not the best idea in a building to which women with violent partners and who want absolute anonymity come for help.
Defenders of AWARE’s established policies called for an emergency general meeting at which they wanted to put forth a vote of no confidence in the new committee. A race to recruit support on both sides saw membership soar from 300 to 3,000 within a month. Fundamentalists on the Internet portrayed AWARE as an organization dedicated to turning Singapore’s young women into lesbians and promoting male homosexuality. Positions became increasingly polarized in the most dramatic episode in the development of civil society in Singapore in recent times.
The emergency meeting was held on May 2. While the newcomers had mobilized a large number of like-minded individuals with no track record on their side, past presidents of AWARE and many others who had worked with the organization or benefited from its help over the years turned out to support a return to AWARE’s long-standing policies. So did a wide variety of women of many backgrounds, including some who declared their own strong Christian beliefs, and a number of Muslims. Hafizah Osman stood up and, indicating the platform, asked, “Where is the diversity? As a Muslim woman, I have no faith that you can represent my voice, my views, my faith.”
A vote of no confidence carried by 1,414 to 761. A diverse committee of supporters of AWARE’s established policies, led by two-time president Dana Lam and including Ms. Osman, was then elected, to the great joy of most of those present.
The basic issue for the majority of the participants was whether AWARE would be able to continue as a secular organization drawing its support from many communities, or be subjected to one unrepresentative and extremist religious group with its own narrow agenda.
John Gee is a free-lance journalist based in Southeast Asia, and the author of Unequal Conflict: The Palestinians and Israel.
SIDEBAR
Percentage of Votes Cast
PARTY Democratic Party (PD) Golkar PDI-P PKS PAN PPP PKB
