Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, May 2004, page 44

The Subcontinent

Nuclear Proliferation Via Pakistan—Not The World’s Only, or Oldest, Route

By M.M. Ali

Pakistan would have been much better off had it worried more about its friends than about its enemies. Islamabad may manage to distance itself from the latest spate of accusations (and individual admissions) regarding nuclear proliferation, and the issue may subside for the time being, but it will not go away. George Bush may keep his hounds on a tight leash because, at the moment, Pervez Musharraf is too valuable an ally in Washington’s war on terrorism—particularly in a U.S. presidential election year.

Whatever the outcome of that election, however, 2005 certainly will see a revival of demands to try Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan and his cohorts. Then again, Khan is not the underworld’s only player in this particular game, and putting him in the docket runs the risk of revelations that many governments, groups and individuals (including in the West) who have been dealing in military hardware may find unsavory.

The story of nuclear technology transfer is a long one—and one which, in its early days, took place primarily in the U.S. and Europe. Since the days in the early 1940s when a group of nuclear scientists defected from the University of Heidelberg to join the Manhattan Project in the United States, through the transfer of nuclear know-how to England and France, and its subsequent smuggling to the U.S.S.R., the world has seen the stockpiling of thousands of atomic, and even hydrogen, bombs by recognized nuclear powers.

The next phase saw the transfer of nuclear weapons to Israel, which reportedly has between 200 and 400 nuclear weapons stashed in its basement. Then, under the ruse of peaceful use of nuclear technology, and with the assistance of the Soviet Union, Canada and the underworld, India built its first nuclear bomb, which it exploded in 1974. Not to be left behind, Pakistan clandestinely built its own nuclear weapon.

The technology subsequently found its way to China, and today North Korea also reportedly possesses nuclear weapons. In fact, in the six decades since nuclear weapons made their appearance on the planet, South Africa—which, under apartheid rule, collaborated with Israel in nuclear testing and production—is the only country to have voluntarily shut down its nuclear plants.

The story that has been making the rounds in Pakistan these days is that Qadeer Khan, essentially a metallurgist, received more credit than he deserved for his contributions to the country’s nuclear weapons program. He reportedly did obtain the centrifuges and helped in the uranium enrichment process, but that accounted for only a small part of Pakistan’s nuclear program, in which over a thousand nuclear physicists are involved. Whatever is revealed in the materials Libya has turned over to the United States, Khan’s transfer of information to Tripoli—even though it could not have helped produce a nuclear weapon—was a violation of Pakistan’s national security system and of international law. It appears, however, that Washington is satisfied that Islamabad was not involved in any way, and that Pakistan’s Command and Control system remains in reliable hands.

Over a thousand nuclear physicists are involved in Pakistan’s nuclear program.

As it does elsewhere on the globe, the presence of nuclear weapons on the subcontinent endangers world peace. Each time a country refuses to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is a matter of serious concern. No wonder India and Pakistan continue to test missiles that can deliver nuclear warheads capable of destroying each other’s cities.

India-Pakistan Relations

It has been a long time since Indians and Pakistanis were as polite and friendly toward each other as they are today. India’s cricket team played in Pakistan in a congenial atmosphere never seen before. More and more land routes are being opened between the two countries, visiting delegations are discussing trade ties, and the neighboring foreign ministers are meeting to tackle political issues. It is apparent that Britain, France, Russia and the United States are working behind the scenes, urging India and Pakistan toward peace and amity.

Although rumors are heard that Delhi and Islamabad will put Kashmir on the table as well, indications are that resolution of this endemic dispute will have to wait. The theory is that, once India and Pakistan open up their borders for hassle-free travel and let their civilian populations get closer, build commercial links and strengthen cultural ties, political disputes like the Kashmir issue can be resolved through negotiations. Perhaps this can indeed happen—if a country like America offers its assurance.

It is an interesting time—in both the subcontinent and the U.S. With November elections looming, the Bush administration would like nothing better than to take credit for maintaining peace between India and Pakistan. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s announcement that U.S. treats Pakistanas a “close ally” outside of NATO countries created a furor in India—although in practical terms it may not amount to much. Making noises may yield some benefits, however, especially when Delhi has been playing along by being friendly to Islamabad.

Indian Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee seeks to gain mileage on the eve of his own April re-election bid, and Pakistani President Musharraf—who has his hands full with domestic problems and the fight against terrorism—can ill afford a conflict with India. Only the Kashmiris will be asked to show yet a little more patience. Sadly, they have no alternative at this time.

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Border

Front-page reports in the subcontinent’s press have been reporting on the U.S.-Afghan pursuit of al-Qaeda from the northern side of the Waziristan area of the tribal belt along Pakistan’s borders, and Pakistani army operations against al-Qaeda in the south Waziristan. No less a person than President Musharraf himself has declared that there are over 600 foreigners among the Taliban hiding in south Waziristan. Speculation is that these “foreigners” may include Osama bin Laden and the Taliban’s Mullah Omar. Pakistan, for its part, has been demonstrating its fealty to Washington by its military campaign to nab Taliban and al-Qaeda members—word on the street in Karachi is that Musharraf will deliver Osama or his second in command if that helps Bush in his re-election. Everything is now being tied to forthcoming elections in India and the United States.

Local tribal leaders may find it confusing, however, that Pakistan’s army, which once supported the Taliban, is now on the opposite side. Military operations in Waziristan are intense, and Islamabad has issued serious warnings against treating the matter lightly. Things may warm up further in the area before the snow starts to melt, as sophisticated military strategies are being worked out in a very unsophisticated and rugged terrain. Many are watching with interest.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia and a consultant based in the Washington, DC area.

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