Articles
WRMEA, August 2010, Page 65
Waging Peace
U.S.-Iran At the Brink
THE EVER-LOOMING threat of an impasse among the U.S., Iran, and the international community over nuclear sanctions was the focus of a June 9 panel entitled "U.S.-Iran: At the Brink?" and hosted by the World Affairs Council at the University of California Washington Center.
The discussion opened with a comparison between previous U.S. attempts to curtail Iran's nuclear capabilities to the handling of the issue by the Obama administration. Trita Parsi, author of Treacherous Alliance (available from the AET Book Club) and a Woodrow Wilson Public Policy Scholar, addressed the latest set of sanctions passed by the U.N. Security Council. Calling it a "watered-down resolution," he noted that more dissent was expressed this time around than in the past. "The sanctions have imposed a cost on Iranians," Parsi said, but added that this did not mean Iran would change its behavior. The sanctions policy is "an end, not a means to an end," according to Parsi, and "America has wasted one of its last cards." This will cause Iran to feel more "emboldened," he said. The perceived decline of the U.S.'s status as a superpower does not help matters. Iran believes that "U.S. hegemony has an expiration date," Parsi said, "so why would they [the Iranian government] want to put their eggs in that basket?"
James Robbins, a senior fellow in national security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council and former special assistant in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, echoed Parsi's sentiment and said that "the international community keeps retreating from what's acceptable [in nuclear enrichment levels]." He added, however, that the U.S. is not saving Iran from itself, since Iran's security would benefit from the possession of nuclear weapons. "I doubt we would be as interested in sending fleets to the Persian Gulf," said Robbins. If Iran possessed nuclear weapons, any U.S. invasion attempting regime change would be impossible—and, according to Robbins, the U.S. "wants that insurance card." Robbins also addressed other incentives for the U.S. to impose sanctions on Iran, such as Israel and its readiness to engage in open conflict with Iran.
"Revolutionary guards are in charge of national security decision-making in Iran," stated Alireza Nader, a RAND international affairs analyst, honing in on this influential force and its role in the context of power struggles between Iranian conservatives and reformists. The increasing radicalization of Iran under conservatives such as Khomeini and leaders such as Ahmadinejad has resulted in the fact that the Iranian government "is not the ideal partner for any sort of diplomacy," Nader argued. However, he added, "We should not give up on engagement completely. We have a long-standing relationship with Iran as a country; we can't lose sight of that." There are many other long-term issues on which to collaborate, Nader concluded, such as Persian Gulf security and energy cooperation.
—Karina Kainth
