Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, May 2012, Page 67

Waging Peace

Panelists Discuss “Arab Spring” in Algeria

A group of North African experts gathered at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies' (SAIS) Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR) in Washington, DC on Feb. 23 to discuss the "Arab Spring: What About Algeria?" The panelists addressed the question of why Algeria has not witnessed a sustained opposition movement, and analyzed the prospects of such a movement emerging in the future. Daniel Serwer, senior research professor in the SAIS Conflict Management Program, moderated the discussion.

John Entelis, director of Fordham University's Middle East Studies Program, opened the discussion by outlining the factors that both favor and hinder the emergence of a revolutionary movement in Algeria. He cited the "mass discontent" among Algeria's "over-educated and under-employed" youth as one factor that could push the country toward political upheaval. Entelis also noted that the government's lack of bureaucratic transparency, "opaque decision making process," and widespread corruption has drawn the ire of many Algerians. Describing Algeria, which derives most of its revenue from renting its oil resources to external clients, as "a rentier state to the nth degree," Entelis warned that the country's "overdependence on oil" makes it vulnerable to potential instability. In addition, he said, regional spillover and the availability of social media could motivate Algerians to take to the street.

According to Entelis, the fact that 73-year-old Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has been in office since 1999, enjoys the full support of the country's powerful military greatly decreases the likelihood that a revolutionary movement will emerge in the North African country. Furthermore, he noted, the president's name, unlike those of other deposed Arab leaders, does not generate anger and hatred, making it harder for an opposition movement to mobilize. Also unlike other Arab countries, Entelis said, Algeria's considerable oil wealth provides it with the financial wherewithal to meet the immediate economic discontent of protesters. Entelis concluded by noting that "land matters," and that Algeria's large size and cultural diversity makes organizing a cohesive opposition movement difficult for political dissenters.

Alexis Arieff, analyst for African and Middle East affairs at the Congressional Research Service, discussed some of the Algerian government's recent political reforms regarding the media, elections and political parties passed in an effort to appease disgruntled citizens. The country also is expected to amend its constitution later in the year, and is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections May 10. In Arieff's opinion, the National Coordination for Democracy and Change (CNDC), an umbrella group of Algerian opposition movements, "never coalesced into a broad based movement" and is not viewed as a threat by the regime.

Despite the fact that the government lifted Algeria's state of emergency a year ago, Eric Goldstein, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Division at Human Rights Watch, stated that the country's human rights situation has not dramatically improved. While individuals are generally free to speak their minds in private, he noted, the government, weary of "public manifestations of political dissent," responds swiftly when protesters display their discontent in a public space. Authorities regularly show "disregard for the law" when dealing with individuals suspected of terrorism, he added, and the country's state-run media, despite recent reforms, remains the "official word" within the country. Observing that mini-riots regarding issues ranging from public housing to the economy are ongoing throughout the country, Goldstein expressed skepticism that these riots will lead to something bigger—although he did describe them as "definitely something to watch."

CTR visiting scholar Daniele Moro discussed Algeria's various security concerns. A growing security challenge, he said, is instability along the country's border with Libya, where Algeria recently discovered around a dozen shoulder missiles. Algiers is also concerned about the 20,000 missiles that allegedly have vanished inside Libya since that country's civil war.

—Dale Sprusansky