Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, March/April 2022, pp. 60-61
Waging Peace
ON JAN. 13, the Gulf International Forum held a virtual panel discussion entitled “Regional Recalibration: Where Do Gulf States Stand?” which featured the following guests: Dr. Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House; Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program; and Dr. Ali Bakir, a research assistant and professor at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences.
The panel discussion focused on recent diplomatic efforts around the Gulf, and whether these talks signal a regional desire to put aside conflicts and seek de-escalation. This diplomatic trend can be seen in recent dialogues between Saudi Arabia and Iran (hosted by Iraq), Turkish rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the UAE’s attempt to bring Syria back within the Arab fold and the end of the rift between Qatar and its neighbors.
In this context, Dr. Lina Khatib noted that the Biden administration seems less interested in the Middle East, as threats from China and Russia have taken precedence. Khatib termed this as “U.S. disengagement” from the region. Some argue that the decline of U.S. involvement in the Middle East has prompted regional actors to become more proactive, but Khatib disagrees with this notion. As she sees it, the rise of powerful regional actors, such as the Gulf nations, came about organically as a result of their adoption of pragmatic policies based on self-interest.
Dr. Ali Bakir focused on Türkiye’s trends, in light of the regional “de-escalation moment.” Ankara, which has relied upon hard power in recent years, has recently started meeting at the negotiation table as part of its “shift back to [an] economic-oriented agenda,” he said. This can be seen in its re-normalization of relations with Egypt and the UAE. It is expected that Emirati-Turkish relations will continue to warm, especially in light of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s February visit to the UAE.
While there have been attempts at rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye since 2020, progress is slow. Bakir explained this is likely a function of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman having some ill-will toward Erdogan due to Türkiye’s prominent role in exposing the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia’s Istanbul Consulate. However, Erdogan’s visit to Saudi Arabia in February is expected to be “crucial in terms of determining whether the two countries will be able to take relations to the next level,” Bakir said.
With regards to Turkish-Iranian relations, Ankara has many reservations about Iran’s role in Iraq and Syria. Tehran likewise has concerns about Türkiye’s waxing influence in the Gulf, Caucasus and Central Asia. If Iran is able to conclude a nuclear deal with the U.S., this would be a “game changer” in terms of relations between Ankara and Tehran, Bakir argued, as it would likely expand Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria and increase the likelihood of disputes between Iran and Türkiye.
Alex Vatanka cautioned observers not to put too much stock in the recent change in civil power in Tehran: “Iran watchers have been saying all along, ‘don’t pay too much attention to [new President Ebrahim] Raisi; he isn’t the decision maker.’” Coming from a judicial background, Raisi does not possess any experience in foreign policy and is extremely loyal to the clerical regime. Thus, according to Vatanka, “the idea that Raisi would come in and Iran would take a turn to the right or to the left hasn’t happened, and it will not happen.”
To understand Iranian foreign policy, one must look toward Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Vatanka expects a “limited deal” to be reached with the U.S., but believes Iran will avoid a broader deal, as it does not wish to discuss issues such as its missile program or Middle East agenda. The 82-year-old Khamenei also wishes to prepare his successor as an extension of himself, but entering into a broader deal would hinder that plan.
Even though the main focus of the panel discussion was on de-escalation, it is debatable whether the region is seeing an ease in tensions, especially in light of the intensification of Houthi attacks against the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Given the multiple powers involved in the region, their clashing interests and the presence of non-state actors, one is allowed to be weary at pronouncements of an impending détente.
—Mona Ali
