Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, June/July 2025, pp. 80-81
Book Talks
MOHSEN MILANI, a professor at the University of South Florida, joined the Iran Podcast with Negar Mortazavi on May 3 to discuss his newly released book, Iran’s Rise and Rivalry with the U.S. in the Middle East.
“The central question that I have in this book is: How is it possible for Iran, a middle power at best, to become a formidable power in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, etc., despite the U.S. policy of containment?”
Beyond Iran’s natural desire to export its 1979 revolution, Milani cited the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war and the U.S. invasion of Iraq as the two events that helped expand Iran’s influence throughout the Middle East.
While Saddam Hussain sought to weaken or destroy the Islamic Revolution, his war of aggression actually had the opposite effect, Milani explained, as the conflict “shaped the evolution of the Iranian revolution and laid the military foundation of Iran’s rise.” In particular, he noted that the war prompted Tehran to develop proxy networks in neighboring states such as Lebanon and Iraq and compelled the country to invest heavily in its own military infrastructure.
By the time the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran was already “a relatively powerful [regional] force,” the author pointed out. However, “had it not been for the American invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of the Sunni-dominated government in Shi’i-majority Iraq, Iran’s rise would not have been possible. The American invasion of Iraq had one huge unintended consequence—it served as a catalyst for Iran’s rise.” With the region upended and its main rival eliminated, Iran was able to sustainably deepen its involvement from Lebanon to Yemen and form what is popularly referred to at the “Axis of Resistance.”
That being said, Milani thinks many commentators overstated Iran’s regional prowess in the wake of Oct. 7, 2023. “I think there was a great deal of exaggeration about Iranian power,” he said. “This idea that Iran controls 4-5 [Arab] capitals…Iran never had the ability to impose its hegemony in any of these countries. At best, Iran had established spheres of influence in those countries.”
He explained that Iran’s foreign policy posture was “both defensive and offensive. It was designed to expand Iranian power and at the same time serve as a deterrent against Israel and against the United States in case those two countries decided to attack Iran.”
Milani believes Iran’s ability to project power has “diminished significantly” and has “at least been reduced by half” as a result of the post-Oct. 7 wars and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria. “Iran has paid a heavy price” and “created new enemies and new challenges,” he said, adding that its deterrent abilities have been proven to be “very limited.”
Going forward, Milani cautioned, “Iran’s rise is unsustainable….Without making some important, meaningful and radical reforms in Iranian foreign policy, most importantly putting an end to this anti-American policy…Iran won’t be able to remain a major power in the Middle East.”
Milani is hopeful about the ongoing talks between Iran and the U.S. “The leaders of these two countries…neither one is a warmonger; they don’t want to get engaged in a war,” he said. “They want to see if they can solve the nuclear impasse through diplomatic channels.”
However, even if a nuclear deal is reached, Milani believes future conflict is unavoidable unless the status quo paradigm of Iran seeking to disrupt U.S. and Israeli regional power is altered. “Iran and the United States have to establish normalized relations,” he urged. “Unless and until we have a normalized relationship, something is going to happen and again we’re going to [continue] this cold war.”
If diplomacy fails and a U.S.-Israeli war against Iran materializes, Milani warned of dire consequences for all involved. “A war [would] damage Iran, without any doubt. It’s going to have a devastating impact on Iran, but it’s [also] going to have a serious impact for the Americans, for the Israelis and for the world economy,” he said. The idea of a quick successful war is foolish and disproven by history, he added. “When you have a long war in that region, everyone is going to be impacted.”
—Dale Sprusansky
