Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, October 2026, pp. 71-72
Waging Peace
SINCE MARCH, Israel has occupied more than 60 villages in southern Lebanon, forcing residents to flee, destroying their homes and leaving much of the land devastated. Despite ceasefires and diplomatic agreements, Israel continues to strike. On June 2, experts discussed the occupation at a panel co-organized by L’Orient Today and the Frontline Club in London.
According to former Washington Post Beirut bureau chief Liz Sly, this occupation differs from the 1978-2000 Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon in that now Israel intends to “destroy and...completely depopulate the area that they’re occupying.”
“This is ethnic cleansing,” she explained. “They [the Israeli military] are systematically destroying every home, every village, every farm, every tree, every little tobacco plantation that supported families. They are making sure that nobody can ever go back and live in these areas again.”
“I don’t think they’ve [the Israelis] got any intention of ever vacating this area,” she added.
Whereas in the 1980s and 1990s “Israel was not in the business of de facto annexing the territory,” now it is, according to SOAS, University of London Emeritus professor Gilbert Achcar.
Washington is unlikely to pressure Israel to vacate, he opined. The idea that President Donald Trump is going to force Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to withdraw from Lebanon “is completely illusory, in my view,” explained Achcar.
“I think the Israelis have a theory of violence, but not necessarily a theory of power,” added Andrew Arsan, professor of Arab and Global History at the University of Cambridge. “In the sense they have no plan for the day after....It’s some kind of protracted occupation, I’d imagine, of large swathes of south Lebanon.”
In addition, Achcar and Sly emphasized that occupying Lebanon will not eliminate Hezbollah, even though that is one of Israel’s stated goals. In fact, “[o]ne way to guarantee that Hezbollah will rebuild and will come back...is to occupy Lebanese land,” she said. “It’s almost like a given.” Hezbollah was formed to fight the Israeli occupation in the 1980s.
Netanyahu “knows that this is going to reinforce Hezbollah,” Achcar explained. Just as Netanyahu “is playing Hamas as a pretext to carry on the invasion of Gaza,” he is playing Hezbollah as a pretext to carry on the occupation of southern Lebanon, he said.
In addition, both Sly and Achcar warned of the danger of Israel’s current efforts to sow sectarian divisions in Lebanon. According to them, Israel manipulates the fear of Israeli violence to dissuade Sunnis from protecting Shi’i neighbors.
For example, in 2024, when Israel attacked a Sunni town in the Bekaa Valley, Shi’is welcomed Sunnis into their homes and brought them food and money, shared Sly. However, now, many families hesitate to welcome Shi’i refugees into their homes out of fear that doing so will make their homes targets of Israeli drone strikes, she said.
“It’s not just [Hezbollah] fighters that they [the Israeli military] target,” explained Sly. “They target people with civilian jobs, especially fundraisers.”
“It is a way of inciting people to reject any Shi’i refugees because they might be linked to Hezbollah,” said Achcar. “Israel is very obviously pouring fuel on this fire, this sectarian fire.”
But, Israel is not alone in that, he added. “Iran played that card [of sectarian fragmentation], too. You have to recognize that.”
“You can’t tell if there will still be a Lebanon a few years from now,” warned Achcar. “I’ve never seen such a dangerous situation.”
—Ivana Gabriele-Smith
